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# 32% of McKinsey survey respondents expect AI to shrink their organisation's workforce next year
- URL: https://aiadoption.org/data/ai-expected-workforce-change-next-year/
- Published: 2026-10-19T17:42:49.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-21T06:02:04.000Z
- Description: 32% of McKinsey survey respondents expect AI to reduce their organisation's headcount over the next year, against 14% who expect an increase. At companies with revenue of $1B or more the share is 35%.
- Author: Manu
- Tags: Data, AI Jobs, #chart, #ai-index-2026, #hub-jobs

32%

of respondents expect AI to decrease their organisation's workforce over the next year; 43% expect little or no change and 14% an increase

All respondents, next year

Decrease32%

Little or no change43%

Increase14%

Don't know12%

## What the chart shows

In McKinsey’s 2025 State of AI survey, 32% of respondents expected AI to decrease their organisation’s workforce over the next year: 4% by more than 20%, 8% by 11–20% and 20% by 3–10%. 43% expected little or no change, 14% an increase and 12% did not know.

Expected cuts were more common at larger companies: 35% of respondents at organisations with revenue of $1B or more, against 30% at smaller ones. Respondents at smaller companies were more likely to expect little or no change (47% against 38%).

## Key numbers

| Measure                                | Value |
| -------------------------------------- | ----- |
| Expect a decrease (all)                | 32%   |
| Decrease by more than 20% (all)        | 4%    |
| Little or no change (all)              | 43%   |
| Expect an increase (all)               | 14%   |
| Expect a decrease, revenue $1B or more | 35%   |
| Expect a decrease, revenue under $1B   | 30%   |

## How to read it

- Shares of respondents to McKinsey’s State of AI survey (2025), not shares of companies.
- Decrease and increase combine the survey’s bands (3–10%, 11–20% and more than 20%); the CSV has each band.
- Bands are rounded, so rows add up to between 99% and 101%. The report’s ‘one-third’ is these 32%.

**Source:** [McKinsey & Company Survey](https://aiadoption.org/sources/#mckinsey-state-of-ai), 2025, via the AI Index Report 2026 (Stanford HAI), figure 4.4.33: *Expected change in workforce size as a result of AI in the next year*. Chart and text by AI Adoption.  
Numbers checked against the published data on 20 October 2026.  
[Download the data (CSV)](https://charts.aiadoption.org/ai-index/csv/ai-expected-workforce-change-next-year.csv?ref=aiadoption.org) · [Cite this chart](#source)