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# AI experts' median forecast: generative AI will assist 18.2% of US work hours by 2030; the public says 10%
- URL: https://aiadoption.org/data/generative-ai-us-work-hours-forecast-experts-vs-public/
- Published: 2026-10-19T16:56:32.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-21T06:03:57.000Z
- Description: AI experts in the LEAP panel expect generative AI to assist 8% of US work hours in 2027 and 18.2% in 2030. The public's median forecast for 2030 is 10%.
- Author: Manu
- Tags: Data, Public Opinion on AI, Generative AI, AI in the US, #chart, #ai-index-2026, #hub-opinion, #country-us, #topic-generative-ai

18.2%

▲ 14.2 pts since 2025

Median AI expert forecast of the share of US work hours assisted by generative AI in 2030

20252030

## What the chart shows

In the Forecasting Research Institute’s LEAP survey, the median AI expert expects generative AI to assist 4% of US work hours by the end of 2025, 8% by 2027 and 18.2% by 2030\. The median member of the public expects 3.4%, 6% and 10%.

The gap grows from 2 points in 2027 to 8.2 points in 2030\. The 75th-percentile expert forecast for 2030 is 28.4%, against 14% for the public. Superforecasters, a third group in the panel, sit between the two at 11.5% for 2030.

## Key numbers

| Measure                           | Value |
| --------------------------------- | ----- |
| AI experts, 2027                  | 8%    |
| AI experts, 2030                  | 18.2% |
| Public, 2027                      | 6%    |
| Public, 2030                      | 10%   |
| AI experts, 2030, 75th percentile | 28.4% |
| Superforecasters, 2030            | 11.5% |

## How to read it

- Weighted medians of forecasts (the w\_median column) from the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP), run by the Forecasting Research Institute. Years are when each forecast resolves (31 December), so they are not evenly spaced.
- The AI Index text says the top quarter of experts forecast more than 30% for 2030; the weighted 75th percentile in the data is 28.4% (the unweighted value is 30%). We use the weighted figures throughout.
- Superforecasters, a third group in the data file, are not charted.

**Source:** [Forecasting Research Institute](https://aiadoption.org/sources/#forecasting-research-institute-leap), 2026, via the AI Index Report 2026 (Stanford HAI), figure 9.2.5: *Generative AI use intensity*. Chart and text by AI Adoption.  
Numbers checked against the published data on 20 October 2026.  
[Download the data (CSV)](https://charts.aiadoption.org/ai-index/csv/generative-ai-us-work-hours-forecast-experts-vs-public.csv?ref=aiadoption.org) · [Cite this chart](#source)