32%
of respondents expect AI to decrease their organisation's workforce over the next year; 43% expect little or no change and 14% an increase

What the chart shows

In McKinsey’s 2025 State of AI survey, 32% of respondents expected AI to decrease their organisation’s workforce over the next year: 4% by more than 20%, 8% by 11–20% and 20% by 3–10%. 43% expected little or no change, 14% an increase and 12% did not know.

Expected cuts were more common at larger companies: 35% of respondents at organisations with revenue of $1B or more, against 30% at smaller ones. Respondents at smaller companies were more likely to expect little or no change (47% against 38%).

Key numbers

MeasureValue
Expect a decrease (all)32%
Decrease by more than 20% (all)4%
Little or no change (all)43%
Expect an increase (all)14%
Expect a decrease, revenue $1B or more35%
Expect a decrease, revenue under $1B30%

How to read it

  • Shares of respondents to McKinsey’s State of AI survey (2025), not shares of companies.
  • Decrease and increase combine the survey’s bands (3–10%, 11–20% and more than 20%); the CSV has each band.
  • Bands are rounded, so rows add up to between 99% and 101%. The report’s ‘one-third’ is these 32%.
Source: McKinsey & Company Survey, 2025, via the AI Index Report 2026 (Stanford HAI), figure 4.4.33: Expected change in workforce size as a result of AI in the next year. Chart and text by AI Adoption.
Numbers checked against the published data on 20 October 2026.
Download the data (CSV) · Cite this chart