AI experts' median forecast: 30% of US adults will use an AI companion daily by 2040; the public says 20%

What the chart shows

In the Forecasting Research Institute’s LEAP survey, the median AI expert expects 10% of US adults to use AI for companionship at least once a day by 2027, 15.1% by 2030 and 30% by 2040. The median member of the public expects 9%, 13% and 20%.

The two groups are close for 2027 and diverge later, ending 10 points apart in 2040. The 75th-percentile expert forecast for 2040 is 45%, against 25% for the public. Superforecasters, a third group in the panel, put 2040 at 28.6%.

Key numbers

How to read it

• Weighted medians of forecasts (the w_median column) from the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP), run by the Forecasting Research Institute. Years are when each forecast resolves (31 December), so they are not evenly spaced. The AI Index defines AI companionship as relationships with AI systems designed for ongoing emotional and social support.
• The AI Index text says the top quarter of experts forecast more than 40% and the top tenth more than 60%; the data file has the 25th, 50th and 75th percentiles only (the weighted 75th is 45%).
• Superforecasters, a third group in the data file, are not charted.