AI experts' median forecast: generative AI will assist 18.2% of US work hours by 2030; the public says 10%

What the chart shows

In the Forecasting Research Institute’s LEAP survey, the median AI expert expects generative AI to assist 4% of US work hours by the end of 2025, 8% by 2027 and 18.2% by 2030. The median member of the public expects 3.4%, 6% and 10%.

The gap grows from 2 points in 2027 to 8.2 points in 2030. The 75th-percentile expert forecast for 2030 is 28.4%, against 14% for the public. Superforecasters, a third group in the panel, sit between the two at 11.5% for 2030.

Key numbers

How to read it

• Weighted medians of forecasts (the w_median column) from the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP), run by the Forecasting Research Institute. Years are when each forecast resolves (31 December), so they are not evenly spaced.
• The AI Index text says the top quarter of experts forecast more than 30% for 2030; the weighted 75th percentile in the data is 28.4% (the unweighted value is 30%). We use the weighted figures throughout.
• Superforecasters, a third group in the data file, are not charted.