39%
respondents expecting AI to reduce headcount in service operations over the next year, against 21% who saw a decrease in the past year

What the chart shows

McKinsey asked respondents how AI had changed, and would change, the number of employees in each business function. In all 11 functions, more respondents expected a decrease over the next year than reported one over the past year. The gap was widest in service operations: 39% expected cuts, against 21% who had seen them.

Expected decreases were also high in supply chain and inventory management (33%) and in software engineering and marketing and sales (32% each). Expected increases were highest in software engineering (21%) and IT (20%), but in every function fewer respondents expected increases than decreases.

Key numbers

MeasureValue
Service operations, expected decrease39%
Service operations, actual decrease21%
Strategy and corporate finance, expected decrease28%
Strategy and corporate finance, actual decrease12%
Software engineering, expected increase21%
Human resources, actual decrease22%

How to read it

  • Shares of respondents to McKinsey’s State of AI survey (June–July 2025, 1,993 participants), by function. The AI Index does not say whether each function’s base is all respondents or only those whose organisations use AI there.
  • Each row is a separate answer; rows do not add up to 100% because other answers (such as no change) are not shown.
  • The AI Index’s companion chart on expected change in total workforce size is not published here: its data file has encoding errors.
Source: McKinsey & Company Survey, 2025, via the AI Index Report 2026 (Stanford HAI), figure 4.4.34: Actual vs. expected change in workforce size as a result of AI by function. Chart and text by AI Adoption.
Numbers checked against the published data on 20 October 2026.
Download the data (CSV) · Cite this chart